Defender of the Year is a tough category to boil down to just one metric. “Defender” can be a bit of a misnomer considering the heavy involvement they have on offense, often leading to them being referred to as a Blue-line Player. In fact, our three finalists only lead the league in offensive stats (Goals, Shots, Primary Assists) for the Defender position, with defensive stats like blocked shots being led by players off the short list.
The nominations therefore seem to be based on “Best Player from the Defender position” rather than focusing on raw defensive stats. This post dives into the different ways the players have made an impact for their team from several different perspectives in hopes of finding a clear winner.
The numbers each finalist puts up
As mentioned above, Jaques, Keller, & Winn make up the top 3 for Goals, Shots, and Primary Assists, and all three of them in the same ballpark for Secondary Assists. In the Shot Blocking category, Haley Winn shows as a clear favorite with 45 blocks — ranking 4th in the league.
|
Sophie Jaques
|
Megan Keller
|
Haley Winn
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals |
9
#1 of 67
|
7
#2 of 67
|
5
#3 of 67
|
| Shots |
110
#1 of 67
|
68
#3 of 67
|
92
#2 of 67
|
| Primary assists |
7
#3 of 67
|
10
#1 of 67
|
8
#2 of 67
|
| Secondary assists |
4
#11 of 67
|
5
#8 of 67
|
6
#6 of 67
|
| Hits |
17
#28 of 67
|
50
#3 of 67
|
32
#12 of 67
|
| Blocks |
39
#12 of 67
|
23
#30 of 67
|
45
#4 of 67
|
| xG Diff (on-ice) |
+1.5
#16 of 67
|
+9.8
#1 of 67
|
+7.9
#2 of 67
|
Rank is among all PWHL defenders in the regular season. Blocks use raw-feed corrected counts (the live /analytics/uncontested page reports a different number — that's the ingest bug discussed in the post).
Play Maker — involvement in scoring sequences
Starting offensive, the Playmaker stat is my attempt at showing player activity that leads to shots/goals for their team. Playmaker extends past the usual point attribution of goal/primary assist/secondary assist to add in blocks, hits, and other events that are part of a continuous scoring sequence. In other words, how often is a player involved when something good happens for their team.
As you can see, these 3 are the clear front-runners by a large margin. This is likely due to their outsized offensive contribution for their team in goals and assists, but those don’t tell the whole story. As shown in the Shot-chains and Scoring-chains column, these players are heavily involved in sequences that lead to scoring chances.
| Defender | Play Points | G | A1 | A2 | Scoring chains | Shot chains |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN Sophie Jaques finalist | 9 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 119 | |
| BOS Megan Keller finalist | 7 | 10 | 5 | 26 | 80 | |
| BOS Haley Winn finalist | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 96 | |
| MTL Nicole Gosling | 3 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 68 | |
| MIN Kendall Cooper | 2 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 56 | |
| OTT Ronja Savolainen | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 72 | |
| TOR Renata Fast | 1 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 78 | |
| VAN Claire Thompson | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 52 |
Play Points = 1.0 per scoring chain + 0.4 per shot chain + 1.0 per goal + 0.6 per primary assist (A1) + 0.3 per secondary assist (A2). A possession chain is a continuous stretch where one team has the puck, ending when the other team takes possession. A scoring chain ends in a goal; a shot chain produced at least one shot but no goal. A player counts toward a chain if they have a tracked event in it (a shot, hit, blocked shot, or faceoff win) — or are credited as the A1 or A2 assister on the goal, even if their pass wasn't logged as its own event.
On-ice impact — goal suppression
This next section explores each defender’s goal suppression via the opponent's expected goals per 60 minutes (xG/60). Effectively, how much did the defender’s presence on the ice lower the opponent’s chances of scoring.
I have further separated this out to show the differences between the defender and the rest of their team, as well as the rest of the league. This is in hopes of reducing bias due to one player’s team being stronger overall. It also raises the point, is this award for the most valuable player to her team? Or compared to the league overall? If the former, Sophie Jaques clearly deserves the nod, as the rest of Vancouver’s defense can’t seem to stop anyone without her. If the latter, Keller and Winn are in a dead heat.
Sophie Jaques
| Opposing shooter | Team | xG/60 on | xG/60 off (same game) | xG/60 vs other teams | Δ within-team | Δ cross-team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayley Scamurra | MTL | 0.91 | 3.59 | 0.60 | +2.69 | -0.31 |
| Julia Gosling | SEA | 0.99 | 3.00 | 0.61 | +2.00 | -0.38 |
| Abby Hustler | MIN | 0.31 | 2.28 | 0.58 | +1.96 | +0.27 |
| Shiann Darkangelo | MTL | 1.49 | 3.36 | 0.58 | +1.88 | -0.90 |
| Klára Hymlárová | MIN | 0.00 | 1.69 | 0.32 | +1.69 | +0.32 |
Megan Keller
| Opposing shooter | Team | xG/60 on | xG/60 off (same game) | xG/60 vs other teams | Δ within-team | Δ cross-team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mannon McMahon | VAN | 0.15 | 2.24 | 0.49 | +2.09 | +0.34 |
| Anna Meixner | VAN | 0.00 | 2.04 | 0.46 | +2.04 | +0.46 |
| Natalie Snodgrass | SEA | 0.29 | 2.00 | 0.36 | +1.71 | +0.08 |
| Abby Roque | MTL | 0.85 | 2.43 | 0.43 | +1.58 | -0.42 |
| Maggie Connors | TOR | 0.29 | 1.84 | 0.63 | +1.55 | +0.34 |
Haley Winn
| Opposing shooter | Team | xG/60 on | xG/60 off (same game) | xG/60 vs other teams | Δ within-team | Δ cross-team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heise | MIN | 0.24 | 2.79 | 0.67 | +2.56 | +0.44 |
| Michela Cava | OTT | 0.44 | 2.60 | 0.44 | +2.16 | -0.01 |
| Kendall Coyne Schofield | MIN | 0.32 | 2.38 | 1.03 | +2.06 | +0.71 |
| Jenn Gardiner | VAN | 0.00 | 1.84 | 0.58 | +1.84 | +0.58 |
| Brianne Jenner | OTT | 0.44 | 2.06 | 0.64 | +1.62 | +0.20 |
Δ within-team = xG/60 when defender is on the bench (same game) minus xG/60 when defender is on the ice. Δ cross-team = xG/60 in games where the defender's team isn't playing minus xG/60 when defender is on the ice. Green = both baselines agree on suppression (robust); red = X actually performs better against this defender than the baseline.
Same forwards, three finalists — apples-to-apples
To compare apples-to-apples, here are each defender’s xG differences when facing the top 10 PWHL forwards (by xG). Here is where Haley Winn begins to pull away in defensive presence, with a near even or positive difference in xG when she is on ice compared to the rest of the team. Sophie Jaques falls behind here, being mostly negative or slightly breaking even within her own team. Surprisingly, none of the defenders appear to outperform the league average.
| Forward | Team | Season xG | Sophie Jaques | Megan Keller | Haley Winn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Δ within | Δ cross | Δ within | Δ cross | Δ within | Δ cross | |||
| Rebecca Leslie | OTT | 9.3 | -1.07 | -2.26 | +0.63 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.38 |
| Sarah Fillier | NY | 8.3 | -1.46 | -3.40 | +0.02 | -0.46 | +0.27 | -0.33 |
| Laura Stacey | MTL | 8.2 | -0.51 | -0.20 | +1.15 | +0.27 | +1.43 | +0.38 |
| Natalie Spooner | TOR | 7.3 | +0.94 | -0.21 | -0.25 | -0.75 | +1.39 | +0.26 |
| Kendall Coyne Schofield | MIN | 7.2 | low TOI | +1.21 | +0.32 | +2.06 | +0.71 | |
| Alex Carpenter | SEA | 7.1 | +0.64 | -0.15 | -0.19 | -0.51 | +0.36 | -0.19 |
| Kristýna Kaltounková | NY | 7.1 | +0.25 | -0.40 | -0.14 | -1.39 | -1.16 | -1.97 |
| Grace Zumwinkle | MIN | 6.9 | low TOI | -0.57 | -0.27 | +0.12 | +0.13 | |
| Emily Clark | OTT | 6.7 | -1.30 | -1.58 | +1.05 | +0.30 | -0.14 | -0.12 |
| Blayre Turnbull | TOR | 6.7 | -1.55 | -1.83 | -1.00 | -0.90 | -0.25 | -0.46 |
Top-10 PWHL forwards by total xG this regular season. Each finalist's Δ-within (same-game on/off) and Δ-cross (vs the forward's average against other teams) for that specific shooter. Green = both baselines show suppression (robust signal); red = the forward outperforms their baseline against this defender; "low TOI" = at least one of overlap / off-ice / cross-team buckets fell below the 5-min thresholds and the comparison would be too noisy.
Keller and Winn — a package deal
Throwing a wrench into this comparison is the fact that Keller & Winn play as a pair, making separating out their achievements individually becomes murky at best. Below is a comparison table of how they perform when on ice together, and who has the advantage when out there alone. As you can see, they shine when playing as a pair and are back and forth when playing alone.
| Opposing shooter | xG/60 — both on | xG/60 — Keller only | xG/60 — Winn only | xG/60 — both off | Pair effect | K − W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lina Ljungblom | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 1.86 | +1.47 | +0.52 |
| Laura Stacey | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 1.74 | +1.41 | +0.22 |
| Abby Roque | 0.47 | 0.29 | 0.37 | 1.83 | +1.36 | -0.09 |
| Sarah Nurse | 0.27 | 0.83 | 0.41 | 1.54 | +1.27 | +0.41 |
| Denisa Křížová | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 1.18 | +1.18 | -0.94 |
| Skylar Irving | 0.00 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 1.18 | +1.18 | +1.15 |
| Brianne Jenner | 0.09 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 1.12 | +1.03 | +0.13 |
| Natalie Snodgrass | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.78 | 1.11 | +0.96 | -0.47 |
| Taylor Heise | 0.21 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 1.16 | +0.96 | +1.38 |
| Kendall Coyne Schofield | 0.31 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 1.14 | +0.83 | +0.51 |
| Daryl Watts | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.93 | +0.79 | -0.79 |
| Danielle Serdachny | 0.33 | 0.85 | 0.47 | 1.11 | +0.78 | +0.38 |
Pair effect = xG/60 when both are off minus xG/60 when both are on (positive = pair suppresses together). K − W = Keller-only xG/60 minus Winn-only xG/60. Negative cell (green) = Keller more individually suppressing for that shooter; positive (red) = Winn more individually suppressing. Filtered to ≥5 minutes in each bucket.
The snub
A particular shoutout I would like to make is the snub of Maggie Flaherty. In purely defensive measures she excels, ranking higher than Jaques in Hits and Blocks. The blocks category is particularly impressive, as she is 8 blocks higher than the next closest defender even with Montreal allowing the fewest shots-against in the whole league. She does, however, fall behind the chosen finalists in offensive stats and play-making potential.
| Goals | Shots | Primary assists | Secondary assists | Hits | Blocks | xG Diff (on-ice) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Flaherty |
4
#4 of 67
|
40
#20 of 67
|
2
#22 of 67
|
3
#17 of 67
|
30
#14 of 67
|
63
#1 of 67
|
+3.5
#7 of 67
|
Flaherty's stats with her league-wide rank among defenders. Highlighted cell = she leads the league in that stat.
Conclusion
With all that said, who deserves Defender of the Year? I have no clue.
Sophie Jaques proves that she is essential to Vancouver’s success. With her on the ice, Vancouver defends demonstrably better with serious opponent xG suppression compared to the rest of her team. Along with that she is heavily involved in setting up plays that lead to scoring opportunities as shown in the Play-maker stat. However, in raw defensive statistics she lags behind Winn by a fair margin, and the xG Diff isn’t even close.
Keller vs. Winn — virtually inseparable
Considering they are almost always on the ice together, it is difficult to separate these two players in a raw numbers analysis. In most stats they are within a single player ranking of each other, they are both very involved in creating scoring plays, and are effectively a toss-up on how well they suppress opposing teams in the few cases where only one of them is on the ice at a time.